Recent analytics released by the firm Veros Real Estate Solutions would seem to suggest that while price appreciation is expected in the coming year, the rate of increase is starting to slow down. The firm recently released its future home price index (HPI) forecast, an average of the top 100 metro areas. The forecast predicts a 5.1 percent appreciation over the next 12 months, representing a slight increase over last quarter’s 4.8 percent predicted appreciation. This forecast marks the sixth consecutive quarter that the forecast has indicated appreciation.
According to Eric Fox, Vice President of Statistical and Economic Modeling at Veros, “the continued appreciation demonstrates the overall health of the real estate market, but it is important to note that this is just a slight increase from last quarter’s national forecast, indicating much slowing in the forecasted rate of increase.”
Of the projections, cities like San Francisco and Seattle, with unemployment rates lower than the national average (low 6% as opposed to low 7%), that also have high demand combined with low inventory top the list as the strongest forecasted markets.
The projected top five strongest markets are as follows:
1) San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA +13.4 percent
2) San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA +10.7 percent
3) Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA +10.2 percent
4) Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA +9.6 percent
5) Midland, TX +9.5 percent
Of the weakest forecasted markets, while depreciation is present, the decrease is small, showing trends of -1 to -2 percent decreases.
The projected top five weakest markets:
1) Atlantic City, NJ -1.7 percent
2) Kingston, NY -1.7 percent
3) Fayetteville, NC -1.3 percent
4) Norwich- New London, CT -1.2 percent
5) Rockford, IL -1.1 percent
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